Climate change in Italy indicated by agrometeorological indices over 122 years

To determine the risk of climate change for agriculture it is necessary to define a set of agrometeorological parameters, derived from the classic climate parameters, that are capable of indicating the consequences of climate change for crop production. In this study high-quality daily rainfall, evaporation and mean, minimum and maximum temperature data collected since 1878 at the meteorological station of the Department of Agronomy and Agroecosystem Management of the University of Pisa, Italy (H = 6 in a.s.l.; latitude = 43degrees41'; longitude = 10degrees23'E) were used to calculate extreme temperature and rainfall events, frost risk, flooding risk and drought risk. Time trends for all variables were analysed using linear regression techniques. Results indicate that the changes in extreme events in Pisa have not changed in a way that is likely to negatively affect crop production. The risk of crop damage due to frost has decreased and sowing time in spring can safely be anticipated. The soil moisture surplus (SMS) and theoretical irrigation requirement (TIR) have not changed despite a decreasing rainfall trend. The number of soil moisture surplus days in autumn has decreased indicating a decrease in flooding risk, which can have a positive effect on soil workability. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.